Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 2.322314 2.811933 3.363411 4.028138 4.805062 5.681717 6.742978
2025-04-27 1.682727 2.315456 3.107721 4.162309 5.517564 7.187881 9.387693
2025-05-04 1.316384 2.019493 2.981438 4.369803 6.293774 8.833192 12.398875
2025-05-11 1.006780 1.705913 2.741829 4.347404 6.721906 10.043001 14.961515
2025-05-18 0.757161 1.409941 2.452175 4.176763 6.881196 10.863067 17.041145
2025-05-25 0.570093 1.162657 2.178339 3.964772 6.920850 11.479904 18.853354
2025-06-01 0.462031 1.022948 2.047194 3.947735 7.241987 12.527434 21.380024
2025-06-08 0.384113 0.918975 1.954988 3.974179 7.624293 13.691629 24.173936
2025-06-15 0.317513 0.820044 1.851082 3.957811 7.921193 14.731923 26.843393
2025-06-22 0.246801 0.692575 1.665310 3.754594 7.852109 15.138976 28.485719
2025-06-29 0.205542 0.621456 1.580061 3.730894 8.103607 16.111545 31.151698
2025-07-06 0.171347 0.557932 1.498110 3.698834 8.329992 17.051187 33.823388
2025-07-13 0.156698 0.543447 1.527516 3.913541 9.079319 19.031578 38.542771
2025-07-20 0.139261 0.516265 1.521973 4.050951 9.688039 20.803245 43.022471
2025-07-27 0.127233 0.501697 1.544840 4.256053 10.459620 22.947768 48.346385
2025-08-03 0.107245 0.455401 1.476406 4.235040 10.742356 24.159238 51.993761
2025-08-10 0.085562 0.395140 1.356729 4.068576 10.682224 24.677040 54.338689
2025-08-17 0.066847 0.337474 1.230153 3.861515 10.500964 24.924742 56.161251
2025-08-24 0.056557 0.307901 1.179664 3.844903 10.759412 26.104543 59.918623
2025-08-31 0.048825 0.285641 1.146805 3.870758 11.121516 27.531099 64.269230
2025-09-07 0.041418 0.261412 1.101777 3.854767 11.377745 28.745309 68.256808
2025-09-14 0.032198 0.223525 1.000265 3.656203 11.148389 28.863401 69.945982
2025-09-21 0.027185 0.204216 0.959536 3.633048 11.368914 30.010621 73.902382